Housing price expectation

Index of housing price expectation is calculated based on the consumers’ perception on housing price change in the next year. This index takes 1 if consumer expects housing price to increase and -1 if consumer expects the price to decrease. Since the 4th quarter of 2014, consumers have been expecting a fall in the price. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the index is 0.66. It has increased by 0.26 units compared to the index of the same period in the previous year and this growth is as a result of a small increase in the expectation of housing price increase and a small decrease in the expectation of decrease in housing price.

Figure 10. Index of housing price expectation

In the fourth quarter of 2017, expectation of stable interest rate has dominated among the consumers with a share of 35.9 percent. However, the response “increase in interest rate” is the smallest at 16.7 percent. 28.5 percent of consumers responded that interest rate will decrease in the next year. The response of “do not know about changes in interest rate” in the next year is 19 percent.

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