The expected rate of inflation
In the third quarter of 2018, 72 percent of individuals have the expectation of “increase in price level” in next 6 months and this response is higher by 27.2 percentage points than that of the third quarter of 2017. One fifth of consumers expects “no change in price level” in next 6 months. Compared to the previous year, this response is lower by 7.2 percentage points.
Household Financial Situation
In the third quarter of 2018, 13.5 percent of consumers responded their financial situation improved within a year, while 28.3 percent responded their financial situation deteriorated. Moreover, the proportion of respondents reported deterioration has decreased by 6.1 percentage points.
Consumer Confidence Index: 2018 3rd quarter
In the third quarter of 2018, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Mongolia has decreased by 4.8 percentage points compared to the same period of the last year and reached to 81.7. A significant decrease in the Expectation Index, contributed to this fall. In particular, the Expectation Index has decreased by 16.9 percentage points and reached to 100.5.
Housing price expectation
Index of housing price expectation is calculated based on the consumers’ perception on housing price change in the next year. This index takes 1 if consumer expects housing price to increase and -1 if consumer expects the price to decrease. Since the 4th quarter of 2014, consumers have been expecting a fall in the price.
Consumer Confidence Index by region
In the fourth quarter of 2017, CCI in Ulaanbaatar was 83. The Current Situation Index was 36 and the Expectation Index was 114. Consumers in rural areas are less optimistic than in Ulaanbaatar with CCI of 67. In particular, in the western and eastern regions consumer confidence is the lowest at 65 and 63 respectively.
Saving preference and households borrowing
In the fourth quarter of 2017, 40.6 percent of households prefer savings in tugrug over the other type of savings and this percent was 52.7 percent in the same quarter of 2016. On the other hand, the percentage of households who prefer savings in foreign currency has increased.
Household financial situation
In the fourth quarter of 2017, 14.3 percent of consumers responded their financial situation improved within a year, while 34.4 percent responded their financial situation deteriorated. Moreover, the proportion of respondents reported improvement has increased by 5.4 percentage points, while proportion reported deterioration has decreased by 1.5 percentage points.
31.5 percent of consumers found it the right time to purchase durable goods, whereas 55.3 percent of consumers found the time wrong. A share of respondents finding it the right time to purchase durable goods has increased by 11.0 percentage points, whereas the share respondents finding it the wrong time has decreased by 1.1 percentage points.
The Expected Inflation
CCI survey collects data on consumers’ expectation of price level. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the expectation of “increase in price level” in next 6 months has dominated (62.3 percent), while 20.9 percent of consumers expect no change in price level in next 6 months. However, 11 percent of consumers have the expectation of “do not know about changes in inflation” in this period.
Consumer Financial Situation
The Quarterly CCI studies households’ financial situations. In the third quarter of 2017, the financial situation of households has improved slightly compared to the same period of last year. 14.9 percent of consumers responded that their financial situation have improved last year, while 32.1 percent reported that their financial situation have deteriorated.